Markets
What the crowd is pricing in
Live Polymarket odds on the questions UNREST tracks. Prices are probabilities set by traders, not forecasts by UNREST.
Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro▲ +3 pts80%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva▼ −3 pts21%
$187.4M vol$2M 24hClosing
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot▼ −9 pts46%
- Benjamin Netanyahu▲ +4 pts31%
- Naftali Bennett▼ −2 pts13%
- +16 more outcomes
$48.5M vol$946.9K 24h9d left
Next French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen▲ +1 pts48%
- Édouard Philippe▲ +2 pts20%
- David Lisnard▲ +0.1 pts12%
- +39 more outcomes
$153.3M vol$844.8K 24hApr 19, 2027Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Other50%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%▼ −1 pts40%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%▲ +5 pts33%
- +6 more outcomes
$2.6M vol$452.4K 24h7d left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%▼ −1 ptsChance · Yes$27.5M vol$175.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%Chance · Yes$74.6M vol$151.3K 24hJan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%▲ +0.1 ptsChance · Yes$44.3M vol$81.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
- December 31▼ −1 pts26%
- October 31▼ −4 pts8%
$9.4M vol$76.9K 24hJan 1, 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
- December 317%
- November 152%
- October 31<1%
$52.8K vol$53.3K 24hJan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
3%▼ −0.1 ptsChance · Yes$15.1M vol$44.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Other50%
- Iotova 20-30%▼ −10 pts47%
- Iotova 40%+▲ +1 pts12%
- +7 more outcomes
$86.1K vol$44.4K 24h7d left
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 2026▼ −0.2 pts3%
$29.4M vol$42.1K 24hJul 1, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
- Remain 40–60%▲ +8 pts62%
- Other50%
- Remain 60–80%▼ −1 pts17%
- +4 more outcomes
$78.3K vol$38.6K 24h1d leftBulgaria Presidential Election
- Iliana Iotova89%
- Аndrey Gyurov▲ +1 pts13%
- Kostadin Kostadinov<1%
- +11 more outcomes
$1.2M vol$33.1K 24h7d left
Netanyahu out by...?
41%▲ +3 ptsChance · Yes$124.6M vol$31.1K 24hJan 1, 2027
Macron out by...?
4%▲ +0.2 ptsChance · Yes$2.2M vol$24K 24hJan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson▼ −1 pts78%
- Ulf Kristersson17%
- Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist▲ +1 pts3%
- +7 more outcomes
$10.2M vol$23.4K 24hClosing
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
- June 30, 20279%
- December 31▲ +0.1 pts3%
$4.3M vol$21.3K 24hJul 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
- December 31, 202742%
- June 30, 2027▼ −2 pts32%
- March 31, 2027▼ −2 pts18%
- +3 more outcomes
$2.9M vol$16.2K 24hJan 1, 2028France declares state of emergency by...?
- December 3116%
- October 316%
- October 214%
$15.7K vol$16.1K 24hJan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- China▼ −0.5 pts76%
- No meeting by December 31▼ −1 pts18%
- United States▲ +2 pts4%
- +12 more outcomes
$1.9M vol$14.9K 24hJan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
- Person L50%
- Person M50%
- Person N50%
- +31 more outcomes
$62.4K vol$11K 24hMar 1, 2027Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
10%Chance · Yes$3.5M vol$10.5K 24hJan 1, 2028
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
- December 31▲ +2 pts97%
- October 31▲ +0.5 pts97%
$903.9K vol$9,721.82 24hJan 1, 2027
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