Markets
What the crowd is pricing in
Live Polymarket odds on the questions UNREST tracks. Prices are probabilities set by traders, not forecasts by UNREST.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot▼ −9 pts46%
- Benjamin Netanyahu▲ +4 pts31%
- Naftali Bennett▼ −2 pts13%
- +16 more outcomes
$48.5M vol$946.9K 24h9d left
Next French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen▲ +1 pts48%
- Édouard Philippe▲ +2 pts20%
- David Lisnard▲ +0.1 pts12%
- +39 more outcomes
$153.3M vol$844.8K 24hApr 19, 2027
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- J.D. Vance▼ −0.7 pts46%
- Marco Rubio▼ −0.1 pts13%
- +41 more outcomes
$713.3M vol$693.1K 24hNov 7, 2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Other50%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%▼ −1 pts40%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%▲ +5 pts32%
- +6 more outcomes
$2.6M vol$452.4K 24h7d left
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Democrats Sweep63%
- R Senate, D House28%
- Republicans Sweep9%
- +2 more outcomes
$24.8M vol$227.7K 24h16d left
Presidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance▼ −0.5 pts20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff▲ +0.8 pts10%
- +51 more outcomes
$717.2M vol$218K 24hNov 8, 2028
Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
$18.4M vol$107.7K 24h16d left
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia▲ +8 pts70%
- List A50%
- List B50%
- +34 more outcomes
$1.4M vol$106K 24h7d left
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Gavin Newsom▲ +2 pts16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez▼ −2 pts15%
- Jon Ossoff▼ −0.2 pts14%
- +50 more outcomes
$1.3B vol$98.9K 24hNov 8, 2028
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
- Yashar▼ −0.5 pts68%
- Likud▲ +1 pts33%
- Together▲ +0.4 pts<1%
- +3 more outcomes
$1M vol$95.2K 24h9d left
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
- Democratic Party65%
- Republican Party37%
$7.1M vol$76.6K 24h16d left
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
- Pete Ricketts (R)▼ −2 pts71%
- Independent▲ +1 pts30%
- Democrat▲ +0.1 pts<1%
$722.6K vol$76.1K 24h16d left
California Governor Election Winner
- Xavier Becerra▲ +0.3 pts96%
- Steve Hilton▼ −0.3 pts4%
- Tom Steyer▼ −0.2 pts<1%
- +20 more outcomes
$42M vol$63.4K 24h16d left
Texas Senate Election Winner
- James Talarico (D)63%
- Ken Paxton (R)▲ +1 pts39%
$4.1M vol$57.1K 24h16d left
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%▼ −0.1 ptsChance · Yes$12.7M vol$51.4K 24hJan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
- Flavio Bolsonaro▲ +16 pts79%
- Candidate A50%
- Candidate B50%
- +5 more outcomes
$156.7K vol$44.7K 24h7d left
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Other50%
- Iotova 20-30%▼ −10 pts47%
- Iotova 40%+▲ +1 pts12%
- +7 more outcomes
$86.1K vol$44.4K 24h7d left
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
- Remain 40–60%▲ +8 pts62%
- Other50%
- Remain 60–80%▼ −1 pts17%
- +4 more outcomes
$78.3K vol$38.6K 24h1d leftBulgaria Presidential Election
- Iliana Iotova89%
- Аndrey Gyurov▲ +1 pts13%
- Kostadin Kostadinov<1%
- +11 more outcomes
$1.2M vol$33.1K 24h7d left
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
- 20-2442%
- <20▲ +1 pts26%
- 25-29▼ −3 pts21%
- +2 more outcomes
$598.6K vol$31.8K 24h9d left
TX-06 House Election Winner
- Jake Ellzey (R)▲ +4 pts>99%
- Danny Minton (D)▼ −2 pts<1%
$117.3K vol$29.2K 24h16d leftNext Prime Minister of Serbia?
- Aleksandar Vučić▼ −1 pts67%
- Person C50%
- Person D50%
- +50 more outcomes
$1.4M vol$26.3K 24h7d left
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate▲ +0.8 pts65%
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate▼ −0.1 pts32%
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate▼ −0.3 pts2%
- +1 more outcomes
$247.8K vol$26K 24h16d left
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson▼ −1 pts78%
- Ulf Kristersson17%
- Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist▲ +1 pts3%
- +7 more outcomes
$10.2M vol$23.4K 24hClosing
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