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What the crowd is pricing in
Live Polymarket odds on the questions UNREST tracks. Prices are probabilities set by traders, not forecasts by UNREST.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 18▲ +3 pts>99%
- October 22▲ +3 pts95%
- October 24▲ +0.5 pts89%
- +7 more outcomes
$16.6M vol$981.8K 24h7h left
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
76%▼ −0.5 ptsChance · Yes$548.3K vol$55.4K 24h16d left
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
- October 18▲ +0.8 pts>99%
- October 21▲ +0.8 pts97%
- October 31▲ +3 pts95%
- +1 more outcomes
$2.1M vol$18.7K 24h3h leftSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- October 17▼ −4 pts84%
- October 16▼ −13 pts82%
- October 23▲ +10 pts80%
- +20 more outcomes
$916.3K vol$13.7K 24hClosing
How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
- 2▼ −14 pts56%
- 3▲ +11 pts26%
- 1▼ −2 pts7%
- +2 more outcomes
$14.8K vol$5,831.78 24h43d left
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
- October 31▼ −2 pts85%
- October 22▼ −11 pts76%
$7,854.42 vol$3,787.07 24h13d leftUSS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?
- November 30▲ +0.4 pts94%
- November 15▲ +0.5 pts83%
- November 12▲ +5 pts65%
- +3 more outcomes
$17.5K vol$2,793.33 24h43d left
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?
- December 3111%
- October 31▲ +8 pts10%
$110K vol$2,683.91 24hJan 1, 2027Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
- December 3116%
- October 31▼ −6 pts6%
$90.4K vol$1,939.18 24hDec 31, 2026Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- September 26▲ +0.5 pts85%
- September 29▼ −5 pts76%
- September 21▲ +3 pts70%
- +8 more outcomes
$217.4K vol$1,884.28 24hClosing
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
- October 599%
- October 8▼ −0.6 pts94%
- October 4▲ +6 pts85%
- +20 more outcomes
$119.5K vol$1,500.83 24hClosing
Will Iran target Iraq by...?
- October 31▼ −5 pts86%
- October 22▲ +0.5 pts77%
$2,467.20 vol$1,415.16 24h13d leftHouthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?
- December 31▼ −1 pts28%
- October 31▼ −4 pts7%
$66.4K vol$857.78 24hJan 1, 2027
Israel military action against Syria by...?
- November 30▼ −0.5 pts15%
- October 31▲ +8 pts14%
$160.3K vol$702.24 24h43d left
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- October 11▲ +0.2 pts94%
- October 18▲ +28 pts89%
- October 2▲ +4 pts73%
- +17 more outcomes
$49.3K vol$563.81 24hClosingUSS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?
- December 31▲ +11 pts92%
- November 30▲ +11 pts67%
- November 15▲ +4 pts31%
$42.7K vol$557.80 24hJan 1, 2027
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
- December 3111%
- October 31▲ +0.4 pts2%
$565.5K vol$552.17 24hJan 1, 2027
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
- November 30▼ −13 pts18%
- October 31▼ −2 pts3%
$100.1K vol$543.47 24h43d left
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?
- November 15▲ +16 pts47%
- October 31▲ +8 pts34%
$7,918.76 vol$514.19 24h28d left
Will Iran target Jordan by...?
23%▲ +5 ptsChance · Yes$21.4K vol$460.38 24h13d left
Israel military action against Iraq by...?
9%▲ +3 ptsChance · Yes$6,122.55 vol$423.48 24h13d left
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
- November 30▲ +16 pts57%
- October 31▲ +3 pts12%
$20K vol$414.99 24h43d leftSaudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?
- December 31, 202621%
- October 31, 20263%
$119.8K vol$342.82 24hJan 1, 2027Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- September 21▲ +0.4 pts93%
- September 29▲ +0.1 pts91%
- September 28▲ +12 pts67%
- +7 more outcomes
$183.9K vol$254.81 24hClosing
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