Markets
What the crowd is pricing in
Live Polymarket odds on the questions UNREST tracks. Prices are probabilities set by traders, not forecasts by UNREST.
Fed Decision in October?
- No change87%
- 25 bps increase14%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- +2 more outcomes
$45.5M vol$531.6K 24h10d left
Largest Company end of October 2026?
- NVIDIA▼ −3 pts79%
- Company F50%
- Company G50%
- +22 more outcomes
$545.1K vol$85.2K 24h13d leftFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase▼ −1 pts76%
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- +2 more outcomes
$3.9M vol$77.6K 24h52d left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
13%▲ +1 ptsChance · Yes$15.1M vol$62.3K 24hJan 1, 2027
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)▲ +0.1 pts1%
- 2 (50 bps)▲ +0.1 pts<1%
- +10 more outcomes
$54.5M vol$35.1K 24hJan 1, 2027
Bank of England decision in November?
- 25 bps increase▼ −0.5 pts94%
- No change7%
- 25 bps decrease▲ +0.3 pts<1%
- +2 more outcomes
$346.2K vol$31.4K 24h18d left2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
- Apple▼ −6 pts74%
- Company B50%
- Company C50%
- +26 more outcomes
$66K vol$12K 24h13d leftLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA▼ −2 pts67%
- Apple▼ −2 pts28%
- Alphabet▲ +0.1 pts2%
- +5 more outcomes
$8.6M vol$10.3K 24hJan 1, 2027
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
11%▲ +3 ptsChance · Yes$132.3K vol$10K 24hJan 1, 2027
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Below 4.50%▲ +5 pts28%
- Below 4.45%▲ +8 pts23%
- Below 4.40%▲ +5 pts15%
- +6 more outcomes
$133.8K vol$8,931.08 24hDec 31, 2026How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- Below 5.20%▼ −0.5 pts39%
- Below 5.15%▼ −8 pts23%
- Below 5.05%▼ −0.5 pts22%
- +6 more outcomes
$119.8K vol$8,368.24 24hDec 31, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- No change▼ −0.2 pts97%
- 25 bps increase3%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- +2 more outcomes
$249.3K vol$8,197.16 24h11d left
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
- No change▼ −0.4 pts96%
- 25 bps increase▲ +0.1 pts4%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- +2 more outcomes
$628.7K vol$7,465.40 24h11d left
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
- $900B-$1.00T▼ −7 pts50%
- $800-$900B▲ +20 pts27%
- $1.00-$1.10T▼ −11 pts20%
- +4 more outcomes
$21.1K vol$7,317.12 24h13d leftFed Decision in January?
- No change63%
- 25 bps increase35%
- 25 bps decrease▲ +0.1 pts2%
- +2 more outcomes
$564.9K vol$6,422.70 24hJan 28, 2027
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
2%▼ −0.3 ptsChance · Yes$1.1M vol$4,972.79 24hJan 1, 2027
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- 4.3-4.6%▼ −3 pts76%
- 4.6-4.9%▼ −2 pts13%
- 4.0-4.3%▲ +2 pts10%
- +6 more outcomes
$78.6K vol$3,653.10 24h2d left
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
79%▲ +0.5 ptsChance · Yes$864.2K vol$3,620.21 24h52d left
Will gas hit __ by end of October?
- ↓ $4.20▼ −1 pts43%
- ↑ $4.50▼ −3 pts42%
- ↑ $4.60▼ −1 pts26%
- +4 more outcomes
$5,389.33 vol$3,465.59 24h13d left
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 5.70%▲ +2 pts60%
- 5.80%▼ −1 pts38%
- 5.90%▲ +1 pts22%
- +1 more outcomes
$242K vol$3,128.15 24hDec 31, 2026
October Inflation US - Annual
- 3.7%▼ −3 pts78%
- 3.9%▲ +2 pts12%
- 3.8%▲ +0.6 pts5%
- +9 more outcomes
$16.3K vol$2,705.65 24h23d left
Bank of Korea decision in October?
- No Change▼ −0.8 pts97%
- 25 bps hike▲ +0.1 pts3%
- 25 bps cut▲ +0.1 pts<1%
- +2 more outcomes
$42.9K vol$2,634.65 24h3d left
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
- 3.0 - 3.5M▲ +3 pts26%
- 2.5 - 3.0M25%
- 2.0 - 2.5M▼ −2 pts22%
- +3 more outcomes
$122.3K vol$2,388.10 24hDec 31, 2026
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
- 7.0%▲ +3 pts5%
- 5.0%▼ −0.3 pts5%
- 5.5%3%
- +2 more outcomes
$568.2K vol$2,319.39 24hFeb 1, 2027
Market data from Polymarket. UNREST is not affiliated with Polymarket. Prediction-market trading is not available in every jurisdiction.