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What the crowd is pricing in
Live Polymarket odds on the questions UNREST tracks. Prices are probabilities set by traders, not forecasts by UNREST.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot▼ −9 pts46%
- Benjamin Netanyahu▲ +4 pts31%
- Naftali Bennett▼ −2 pts13%
- +16 more outcomes
$48.4M vol$939.5K 24h9d left
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 18▲ +3 pts>99%
- October 22▲ +2 pts94%
- October 2488%
- +7 more outcomes
$16.6M vol$893.7K 24h7h left
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 18▲ +2 pts>99%
- October 21▲ +2 pts97%
- October 3186%
- +3 more outcomes
$36.7M vol$558.7K 24h7h left
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%▼ −1 ptsChance · Yes$27.5M vol$175.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
- October 19▲ +3 pts87%
- October 21▲ +5 pts80%
- October 2076%
- +10 more outcomes
$463.6K vol$154.9K 24h1d left
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%Chance · Yes$74.6M vol$151.3K 24hJan 1, 2027
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- December 3118%
- November 30▲ +1 pts12%
- October 31▼ −0.9 pts3%
$17.3M vol$89K 24hJan 1, 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- March 31▲ +0.5 pts59%
- December 31▲ +0.9 pts36%
- November 30▲ +2 pts21%
- +1 more outcomes
$41.1M vol$82.6K 24hApr 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
<1%▲ +0.1 ptsChance · Yes$2.8M vol$81.8K 24h13d left
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%▲ +0.1 ptsChance · Yes$44.3M vol$81.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
- December 31▼ −1 pts26%
- October 31▼ −4 pts8%
$9.4M vol$77.1K 24hJan 1, 2027Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
13%▲ +1 ptsChance · Yes$15.1M vol$62.3K 24hJan 1, 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro▲ +0.5 pts72%
- Delcy Rodríguez▼ −3 pts22%
- No Head of State2%
- +13 more outcomes
$98.4M vol$56K 24hJan 1, 2027
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
- December 31▼ −5 pts28%
- October 31▲ +1 pts5%
$317.6K vol$52.2K 24hJan 1, 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%▼ −0.1 ptsChance · Yes$12.7M vol$51.4K 24hJan 1, 2027
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
8%▼ −1 ptsChance · Yes$2M vol$45.4K 24hJan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
3%▼ −0.1 ptsChance · Yes$15.1M vol$44.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 2026▼ −0.2 pts3%
$29.4M vol$42.1K 24hJul 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- October 18▲ +15 pts>99%
- October 21▼ −5 pts86%
- October 22▼ −3 pts86%
- +12 more outcomes
$667.7K vol$41.2K 24h7h left
Netanyahu out by...?
41%▲ +3 ptsChance · Yes$124.6M vol$31.1K 24hJan 1, 2027Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
<1%Chance · Yes$165.8K vol$30K 24h13d left
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate▲ +0.8 pts65%
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate▼ −0.1 pts32%
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate▼ −0.3 pts2%
- +1 more outcomes
$247.8K vol$24.8K 24h16d left
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
76%▼ −0.5 ptsChance · Yes$548.3K vol$23.4K 24h16d left
Iran leadership change by...?
- June 30, 2027▲ +0.5 pts25%
- December 3112%
- November 307%
- +1 more outcomes
$27.6M vol$22.3K 24hJul 1, 2027
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