Markets
What the crowd is pricing in
Live Polymarket odds on the questions UNREST tracks. Prices are probabilities set by traders, not forecasts by UNREST.
Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro▲ +3 pts80%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva▼ −3 pts21%
$187.4M vol$2M 24hClosing
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot▼ −9 pts46%
- Benjamin Netanyahu▲ +4 pts31%
- Naftali Bennett▼ −2 pts13%
- +16 more outcomes
$48.4M vol$939.5K 24h9d left
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 18▲ +3 pts>99%
- October 22▲ +2 pts94%
- October 2488%
- +7 more outcomes
$16.6M vol$893.7K 24h7h left
Next French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen▲ +1 pts48%
- Édouard Philippe▲ +2 pts20%
- David Lisnard▲ +0.1 pts12%
- +39 more outcomes
$153.3M vol$840.1K 24hApr 19, 2027
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
- J.D. Vance▼ −0.7 pts46%
- Marco Rubio▼ −0.1 pts13%
- +41 more outcomes
$713.3M vol$692.5K 24hNov 7, 2028Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Other50%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%▼ −1 pts40%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%▲ +5 pts33%
- +6 more outcomes
$2.6M vol$446.5K 24h7d left
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
- 360-379▲ +12 pts34%
- 340-359▲ +8 pts28%
- 380-399▼ −0.4 pts19%
- +9 more outcomes
$1.4M vol$303.4K 24h2d left
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Democrats Sweep63%
- R Senate, D House28%
- Republicans Sweep9%
- +2 more outcomes
$24.8M vol$228.6K 24h16d leftElon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?
- 65-89▲ +25 pts67%
- 90-11417%
- 40-64▼ −19 pts15%
- +6 more outcomes
$320.3K vol$221.2K 24h19h left
Presidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance▼ −0.5 pts20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff▲ +0.8 pts10%
- +51 more outcomes
$717.2M vol$218.3K 24hNov 8, 2028
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%▼ −1 ptsChance · Yes$27.5M vol$175.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%Chance · Yes$74.6M vol$151.3K 24hJan 1, 2027Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- 260-279▲ +7 pts18%
- 280-299▲ +2 pts14%
- 240-259▲ +6 pts14%
- +19 more outcomes
$438K vol$135.7K 24h5d left
Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
$18.4M vol$111.8K 24h16d left
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia▲ +7 pts69%
- List A50%
- List B50%
- +34 more outcomes
$1.4M vol$106K 24h7d left
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Gavin Newsom▲ +2 pts16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez▼ −2 pts15%
- Jon Ossoff▼ −0.2 pts14%
- +50 more outcomes
$1.3B vol$98.7K 24hNov 8, 2028
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
- Yashar▼ −0.5 pts68%
- Likud▲ +1 pts33%
- Together▲ +0.4 pts<1%
- +3 more outcomes
$1M vol$95.2K 24h9d left
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- December 3118%
- November 30▲ +1 pts12%
- October 31▼ −0.9 pts3%
$17.3M vol$89K 24hJan 1, 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- March 31▲ +0.5 pts59%
- December 31▲ +0.9 pts36%
- November 30▲ +2 pts21%
- +1 more outcomes
$41.1M vol$82.6K 24hApr 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
<1%▲ +0.1 ptsChance · Yes$2.8M vol$81.8K 24h13d left
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%▲ +0.1 ptsChance · Yes$44.3M vol$81.6K 24hJan 1, 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
- Democratic Party65%
- Republican Party37%
$7.1M vol$76.1K 24h16d left
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
- Pete Ricketts (R)▼ −2 pts71%
- Independent▲ +1 pts30%
- Democrat▲ +0.1 pts<1%
$722.6K vol$76.1K 24h16d left
California Governor Election Winner
- Xavier Becerra▲ +0.3 pts96%
- Steve Hilton▼ −0.3 pts4%
- Tom Steyer▼ −0.2 pts<1%
- +20 more outcomes
$42M vol$67.4K 24h16d left
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