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What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
$105.2K volume$4,936.69 24h$7,340.55 liquidityApr 1, 2027
Outcomes
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
Yes · chance
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Rules
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
- Ends
- 1 Apr 2027
- Resolution source
- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Market data from Polymarket. UNREST is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not give financial advice.
